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Post by blackmouth210 on Dec 19, 2018 21:23:30 GMT -5
I think what Ted has said is prophetic if not entirely accurate...I'm afraid our numbers are declining and will continue to decline due to the strong headwinds pushing tobacco to be the new ebola...bs that it may be, most people don't think past the headlines. There was a weird resurgence in pipe smoking in the early 2010s on college campuses according to some of my younger buddies. I went to some graduations this year though and didn't see a single pipe anywhere. Those gradiations may not have been representative of the popularity of pipe tobacco smoking by college students. It's a graduation ceremony. Smoking isn't allowed during school functions and is strictly limited on campus. I spent the weekend in an area college town on some family business not too long ago. I passed most of my down time at a local pipe shop and saw all age groups represented in their clientele. There were plenty of college-aged pipers. My experience is also not representative of the popularity of pipesmoking with that generation. But it shows how a very different view of college aged pipe-smokers can be taken while at a college-area pipe shop compared to the view taken while at a college graduation ceremony.
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Post by unknownpipesmoker on Dec 19, 2018 21:52:41 GMT -5
There was a weird resurgence in pipe smoking in the early 2010s on college campuses according to some of my younger buddies. I went to some graduations this year though and didn't see a single pipe anywhere. Those gradiations may not have been representative of the popularity of pipe tobacco smoking by college students. It's a graduation ceremony. Smoking isn't allowed during school functions and is strictly limited on campus. I spent the weekend in an area college town on some family business not too long ago. I passed most of my down time at a local pipe shop and saw all age groups represented in their clientele. There were plenty of college-aged pipers. My experience is also not representative of the popularity of pipesmoking with that generation. But it shows how a very different view of college aged pipe-smokers can be taken while at a college-area pipe shop compared to the view taken while at a college graduation ceremony. Yeah I tend to put too much faith in my own casual observations. One thing I've discovered, from working in businesses where I tend to go into many homes, is that there are a lot of strange people out there. LOTS. Into all kinds of stuff. You just wouldn't believe it. I used to think I was the only eccentric one. There's a niche and a crevice for everyone.
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flyinmanatee
Junior Member
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Post by flyinmanatee on Dec 19, 2018 21:57:21 GMT -5
Everytime I look on reddit someone is taking up the pipe. Now some of it is the Gandolf factor and many may not go past the weird wood warden or a cob but the interest is out there. I would suspect Dagner for example has a much younger clientele. All where missing is the new James Dean to don one at the Impressionable Peoples Award Show. But an investment no, seems like there is more pipes than tobacco. And keeping up with inflation is not investing.
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Post by Dramatwist on Dec 19, 2018 22:24:15 GMT -5
$7.50 in 1954 is equivalent to $69.51 in 2017, adjusting for inflation. Exactly. I was just too lazy to do the math. 🤠 ...you would still have done better in the stock market...
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Post by qmechanics on Dec 19, 2018 22:48:38 GMT -5
Going back to the thread's original point, my pipe buying philosophy has evolved over the years. Currently I operate by the rule that a pipe should be purchased for around the price I think I can reasonably sell it for or better with few exceptions. Though I am not a seller,if one knows what he or she is doing one can buy low and sell pipes for a decent profit. Other than that there are much better ways to invest at this time.
Right now however my focus is on purchasing pipe tobacco to enjoy on special occasions as mentioned previously.
PS Remember today's boutique pipe carver can become tomorrow's post, "who is this guy"?
I am curious to see what will happen to the pipe market when the FDA starts requiring the testing of tobacco pipes; A reality some pipe smokers are not aware of that I hope will be eliminated.
As stated above personal observations can be off sometimes very off for various reasons. If one truly wants to come to a better idea of the truth proper research is necessary.
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Post by blackmouth210 on Dec 19, 2018 23:14:27 GMT -5
I am curious to see what will happen to the pipe market when the FDA starts requiring the testing of tobacco pipes. A reality some pipe smokers are not aware of that I hope will be eliminated. "Reality" is a strong word at this stage. It's a "possibility". Nothing more. I have not read the regs. 400 pages of legal-speak is too much for me. However, there are a few people I trust who have read the regs in their entirety. They are generally much more optimistic about this pending FDA issue than almost every one of us that have NOT read it. Even those well versed on the pending issue can only guess at what's to come. And I like that their guesses are often not as doom-n-gloom as online chatter would have us believe. I have to take comfort where I can. 😌
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Post by qmechanics on Dec 20, 2018 0:03:43 GMT -5
I am curious to see what will happen to the pipe market when the FDA starts requiring the testing of tobacco pipes. A reality some pipe smokers are not aware of that I hope will be eliminated. "Reality" is a strong word at this stage. It's a "possibility". Nothing more. I have not read the regs. 400 pages of legal-speak is too much for me. However, there are a few people I trust who have read the regs in their entirety. They are generally much more optimistic about this pending FDA issue than almost every one of us that have NOT read it. Even those well versed on the pending issue can only guess at what's to come. And I like that their guesses are often not as doom-n-gloom as online chatter would have us believe. I have to take comfort where I can. 😌 What will come will come but right now the text is there to see. Pipes are listed for regulation. This is reality for now: www.fda.gov/TobaccoProducts/Labeling/ProductsIngredientsComponents/ucm482580.htm"FDA Regulation of Pipe Tobacco In 2016, FDA finalized a rule extending our regulatory authority to cover all tobacco products, including pipe tobacco. FDA regulates the manufacture, import, packaging, labeling, advertising, promotion, sale, and distribution of pipe tobacco. This includes components and parts such as pipes, but excludes accessories such as lighters." If you wish I can dig up the regulation directly. Yes tobacco pipe regulation might be modified or eliminated (Though I stated something similar, I should have been more precise and clear in my last post to avoid any confusion.) but this has yet to happen. Until changes occur the FDA regulations stand. What else can be said? If you cannot read legalese there are plenty of resources out there including the words straight from the FDA. How draconian or problematic these rules will actually be is yet to be realized. So in one sense I am with you as I believe some folks take predictions too far and breath doom and gloom. I also do not take anyone's words as gospel unless they can back it up with verifiable facts (The link provided gives one an easy to read distillation of the official regulations and is a good place to start.). PS I am curious as to who these people are that your place faith in (link, paper?) and what is meant by much more optimistic? I have spoken to people like Nick Perdomo and Rocky Patel, read articles, portions of the proposed FDA regulations,FDA,CRA etc webpages, various tobacco trade and popular magazines and cannot say I am much more optimistic (though without an exact understanding of your base point, it is hard to say if we are starting from the same place.) ,though I am hopeful.😁
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Post by blackmouth210 on Dec 20, 2018 0:25:24 GMT -5
"Reality" is a strong word at this stage. It's a "possibility". Nothing more. I have not read the regs. 400 pages of legal-speak is too much for me. However, there are a few people I trust who have read the regs in their entirety. They are generally much more optimistic about this pending FDA issue than almost every one of us that have NOT read it. Even those well versed on the pending issue can only guess at what's to come. And I like that their guesses are often not as doom-n-gloom as online chatter would have us believe. I have to take comfort where I can. 😌 What will come will come but right now the text is there to see. Pipes are listed for regulation. This is reality. www.fda.gov/TobaccoProducts/Labeling/ProductsIngredientsComponents/ucm482580.htm"FDA Regulation of Pipe Tobacco In 2016, FDA finalized a rule extending our regulatory authority to cover all tobacco products, including pipe tobacco. FDA regulates the manufacture, import, packaging, labeling, advertising, promotion, sale, and distribution of pipe tobacco. This includes components and parts such as pipes, but excludes accessories such as lighters." If you wish I can dig up the regulation directly. Yes tobacco pipe regulation might be modified or eliminated but this has yet to happen. Until changes occur the FDA regulations stand. What else can be said? If you cannot read legalese there are plenty of resources out there including the words straight from the FDA. How draconian or problematic these rules will actually be is yet to be realized. In one sense I am with you as I believe some folks take predictions too far. In another sense I try to not take anyone's words as gospel unless they can back it up with verifiable facts (The link provided gives one an easy to read distillation of the official regulations and is a good place to start.) PS I am curious as to who these people are that your place faith in (link, paper?) and what is meant by much more optimistic? I have spoken to people like Nick Perdomo and Rocky Patel, read articles, portions of the proposed FDA regulations,FDA,CRA etc webpages, various tobacco trade and popular magazines and cannot say I am much more optimistic (though without an exact understanding of your base point, it is hard to say if we are starting from the same place.) ,though I am hopeful.😁 But when will it take effect? That is what takes the black-n-white of the regs as written and turns it into mist. The reality isn't in what's written it's in the fact that no one, not even the FDA, can say for sure that these regs will ever be put into effect AS CURRENTLY WRITTEN. The process has been delayed at least twice that I know of. And the future date currently set (2021) is no more certain than the last date was. That makes the written word nothing more than a possibility. I'm not here to change anyone's mind. I have my sources. We all do. It's just off-putting to read/hear comments that make the regulations as currently written appear to be an inevitable foregone conclusion. That's been the same speak behind so many comments going back to early 2016 when the first rumblings of this became commonly known to a lot of us. Heck, authors as certain of their sources as you and I are certain of our own sources today were filling up forums and social media with chatter that August 2016 was going to be the "tobaccolypse" and that all would be taken away from us as of the 18th of August thanks to those same FDA regs we are discussing today. We have no way of knowing if ANY of us are right. That's my point.
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Post by Legend Lover on Dec 20, 2018 0:56:05 GMT -5
To turn the topic in another direction, there is perhaps money to be made in refurbishing pipes. Not much, but you could maybe make $20-30 (maybe more, maybe less) on a pipe that's in need of cleaning, provided you do the work in-house.
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Mac
Full Member
Posts: 834
First Name: John
Favorite Pipe: Ken Barnes Canted Billiard
Favorite Tobacco: Margate, Smyrna, Vintage Syrian
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Post by Mac on Dec 20, 2018 0:58:34 GMT -5
Well acquainted with sudden price hikes due to shortages or impending shortages, e.g., McC and Dunghill. So, some guys bought up all they could and are making a tiny fortune reselling at market prices. That's not investment grade; it's either clever market opportunism or scalping; take your choice.
I'd be willing to bet that in adjusted 2028 dollars, those two blends will go for less than they are now when those ten years have passed.
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Post by qmechanics on Dec 20, 2018 2:26:03 GMT -5
What will come will come but right now the text is there to see. Pipes are listed for regulation. This is reality. www.fda.gov/TobaccoProducts/Labeling/ProductsIngredientsComponents/ucm482580.htm"FDA Regulation of Pipe Tobacco In 2016, FDA finalized a rule extending our regulatory authority to cover all tobacco products, including pipe tobacco. FDA regulates the manufacture, import, packaging, labeling, advertising, promotion, sale, and distribution of pipe tobacco. This includes components and parts such as pipes, but excludes accessories such as lighters." If you wish I can dig up the regulation directly. Yes tobacco pipe regulation might be modified or eliminated but this has yet to happen. Until changes occur the FDA regulations stand. What else can be said? If you cannot read legalese there are plenty of resources out there including the words straight from the FDA. How draconian or problematic these rules will actually be is yet to be realized. In one sense I am with you as I believe some folks take predictions too far. In another sense I try to not take anyone's words as gospel unless they can back it up with verifiable facts (The link provided gives one an easy to read distillation of the official regulations and is a good place to start.) PS I am curious as to who these people are that your place faith in (link, paper?) and what is meant by much more optimistic? I have spoken to people like Nick Perdomo and Rocky Patel, read articles, portions of the proposed FDA regulations,FDA,CRA etc webpages, various tobacco trade and popular magazines and cannot say I am much more optimistic (though without an exact understanding of your base point, it is hard to say if we are starting from the same place.) ,though I am hopeful.😁 But when will it take effect? That is what takes the black-n-white of the regs as written and turns it into mist. The reality isn't in what's written it's in the fact that no one, not even the FDA, can say for sure that these regs will ever be put into effect AS CURRENTLY WRITTEN. The process has been delayed at least twice that I know of. And the future date currently set (2021) is no more certain than the last date was. That makes the written word nothing more than a possibility. I'm not here to change anyone's mind. I have my sources. We all do. It's just off-putting to read/hear comments that make the regulations as currently written appear to be an inevitable foregone conclusion. That's been the same speak behind so many comments going back to early 2016 when the first rumblings of this became commonly known to a lot of us. Heck, authors as certain of their sources as you and I are certain of our own sources today were filling up forums and social media with chatter that August 2016 was going to be the "tobaccolypse" and that all would be taken away from us as of the 18th of August thanks to those same FDA regs we are discussing today. We have no way of knowing if ANY of us are right. That's my point. Blackmouth210: But when will it take effect? That is what takes the black-n-white of the regs as written and turns it into mist. My Reply: I believe the current date of implementation for the majority of the pipe tobacco etc. FDA regulations is set for Aug. 8, 2021 . However there have been parts of the regulation that have or should have taken place before then (For example,the new warning labels were supposed to be implemented in August 2018 but have been delayed due to court action.). The black and white or written regulations can be changed. However I think one is being fairly optimistic in assuming the delays are a strong indicator that significant change or dismissal (turned into mist) is forthcoming. Blackmouth210: The reality isn't in what's written it's in the fact that no one, not even the FDA, can say for sure that these regs will ever be put into effect AS CURRENTLY WRITTEN. The process has been delayed at least twice that I know of. And the future date currently set (2021) is no more certain than the last date was. That makes the written word nothing more than a possibility. My Reply: I am not arguing they cannot change but stating what is currently reality. Did I not say, "Yes tobacco pipe regulation might be modified or eliminated but this has yet to happen. Until changes occur the FDA regulations stand. What else can be said? " This discussion is in part a semantics game. The regulations clearly state what they intend to do. This is one aspect of our current reality. What is going to come to pass might be different and therefore it is understood that until the regulations are applied, they are possibilities. This is also a part of reality. However given the anti-tobacco climate, nature of our courts,Congressional shenanigans etc. , one can legitimately and reasonably question whether any substantial changes will occur. Ultimately my point in emphasizing what is written is to inform others and say this is likely to come to pass, especially if we do nothing. Blackmouth210: I'm not here to change anyone's mind. I have my sources. We all do. It's just off-putting to read/hear comments that make the regulations as currently written appear to be an inevitable foregone conclusion. My Reply: I get the impression that the passion of your comments are more an expression of your general frustration than a reaction to my statements (though no doubt I triggered it). However as a result I am not sure you are giving my response a fair reading. I never said anything was a foregone conclusion, though I do lean towards the idea that the FDA regulations will not be all that different in the end. Note: While you were writing your response I added this comment to my last reply that does not appear in your quote box. .....(Though I stated something similar, I should have been more precise and clear in my last post to avoid any confusion.)... As I am typing on my phone my limitations are many (big fingers ,small phone, poor eyesight etc.).It is my hope that you will read my comments in the best light possible even as I seek and peck in the dark.😁lol Blackmouth210: That's been the same speak behind so many comments going back to early 2016 when the first rumblings of this became commonly known to a lot of us. Heck, authors as certain of their sources as you and I are certain of our own sources today were filling up forums and social media with chatter that August 2016 was going to be the "tobaccolypse" and that all would be taken away from us as of the 18th of August thanks to those same FDA regs we are discussing today. We have no way of knowing if ANY of us are right. That's my point. My Reply: I try to go right to the source as this is not only part of who I have always been but reinforced by my training as a researcher. The link I provided is straight from the FDA . No question of opinion or conjecture though one can question if it will come to pass. Maybe you are not aware of the nature of these regulations? They are not mere proposals anymore. The FDA intends on carrying out everything stated. So change more than likely will have to come from forces outside the FDA that either overturn or force the FDA to rethink it's measures. In any case, I never thought all tobacco products would be removed or took part in the "tobaccolypse" nonsense. My approach has always been what do the regulations say, what has and is occurring in Congress and the courts, what is likely to occur and what can we do about this etc. ? The reason I asked you for your sources was to see if any further insight might be gained. I am after the truth as simple as that. If what you have to offer brings in new information, I am all for it. So please send a link or provide your resources. So far the major point you have hammered down is your belief that since the regulations are not fully implemented they are merely possibilities. Fine with me...However stating that we all have opinions, talking about others crazy ideas or delays in implementing regulation cannot be the only reasons for your optimism. In so many words, what do you know of the fight to remove tobacco pipes from regulation or any major/strong arguments/cases/legislation etc that are likely to change the FDA's current regulatory course? There are a number of interesting court cases going on (like the delayed action on warning labels), maybe you know something I do not. In summary something(s) has(have) to occur to change the current course of action set by the regulations. What do you know of such things? I would not doubt that when the folks on the Titanic first saw the ice field and felt the first hit, many thought, we are in the unsinkable ship so drowning is only a remote possibility. I believe at that moment they had more reason to be hopeful than we do😁(I am exaggerating a bit for humor sake.). Still I am hopeful that at least some changes will occur more than likely from the lawsuits (As the party that began this process will control the House, I see Congressional action being less likely.). I really appreciate your comments and thank you. For now I plan for the worst case scenario and hope for the best.
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Post by Dramatwist on Dec 20, 2018 3:26:57 GMT -5
At one time a number of years ago, it was possible to find a "lot" of pipes on eBay or elsewhere, restore them, and make a good profit... but in my experience, eBay sellers and antique stores now seem to believe that any pipe, no matter how disgusting or mistreated are worth relatively high dollars.
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Post by blackmouth210 on Dec 20, 2018 7:36:38 GMT -5
To turn the topic in another direction, there is perhaps money to be made in refurbishing pipes. Not much, but you could maybe make $20-30 (maybe more, maybe less) on a pipe that's in need of cleaning, provided you do the work in-house. I agree. The couple of guys I know refurbing and reselling do it more as a hobby or "labor of love". For them, it's not a straight-up business venture or a way of making high profits.
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Post by dave g on Dec 20, 2018 7:54:13 GMT -5
L&H Stern’s motto was: LHS, an investment in daily pleasure.
I’ve found this to be very true.
If pipe and leaf bring you satisfaction then your investment is worth every penny.
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Post by blackmouth210 on Dec 20, 2018 8:03:33 GMT -5
L&H Stern’s motto was: LHS, an investment in daily pleasure. I’ve found this to be very true. If pipe and leaf bring you satisfaction then your investment is worth every penny. That sums it up perfectly. 👍👍
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gav
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Post by gav on Dec 20, 2018 8:25:07 GMT -5
I love buying things you can use and sell for the same price you got them for. Pipes, Guitars, vintage clothing, Sterling ect. As long as you don't buy them new you can usually get the investment back plus the free rental time. If it goes up in value then so much the better.
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