sablebrush52
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Post by sablebrush52 on Feb 22, 2018 23:03:48 GMT -5
I understand that C&D is taking over the MC blends. Should be an interesting time. I suspect that pigs will be flying before that happens. Mike McNeil has said repeatedly that he would rather close down the business than sell it, or turn it over to someone else to run. He doesn't believe that anyone else is going to be able to uphold his standard and he doesn't want the name sullied.
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sablebrush52
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Post by sablebrush52 on Feb 22, 2018 23:21:49 GMT -5
They made the announcement earlier this year that they weren't happy with the quality of Red Virginia that they were seeing and thus retired 5100. That doesn't mean that there isn't good Red out there, just not what McNeil is looking for to produce his particular blends.
As for not making an announcement, what good would come of that? The speculators and hoarders would descend like a plague of locusts and wipe out the supply, depriving their regular customers of their favorites.
By not saying anything the process has been much more gradual, allowing their customers months to purchase their favorite blends as they wished, until stocks grew low enough to catch someone's attention.
Now that people think McClelland is closing, something that they have not said, the panic is on and people are buying like it's the end of the world.
Some of the rarer favorites, like Tudor Castle, may become valuable on the gouging secondary market. But many of these blends were produce in massive amounts, 50,000 to 100,000 tin runs, such that it's not likely they will be appreciating in value all that much for a long long time.
And sellers may find themselves with a number of restrictions regarding secondary market sales, and/or a reduced market. Also, as the generation of geezers with cellars dies off, all that product will be hitting the market.
Tobacco as an investment is a lousy idea.
Personally, I buy to smoke. I have a number of rarities and unobtainium in the cellar that fetch 4 to 8 times what I paid for them, and I truly don't care. I'm gonna smoke them, and whatever is left after I croak out, will be sold to benefit my beneficiaries. Instructions are included in my will.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2018 23:46:50 GMT -5
Personally, I buy to smoke. I have a number of rarities and unobtainium in the cellar that fetch 4 to 8 times what I paid for them, and I truly don't care. I'm gonna smoke them. I like this statement...
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2018 0:04:41 GMT -5
I put away some of my favorite McClelland blends, but there is no way I can afford to stock up adequately on all of them. I will save them for special occasions. I love Dark Star, Beacon Extra, Wilderness and 3 Oaks Syrian. I wish I had 50 tins of each. I will have to make do with a dozen or so. Not happy news for me at all.
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Post by zambini on Feb 23, 2018 0:45:39 GMT -5
I don't like C&D. I do/did like 3 or 4 McClelland VA's and about that many others, but I am stocked on all of them so no big loss for me as far was what to smoke. But what in the hell is going on with this industry that they can't tell us the truth. Hopefully somebody will step up and let us know the exact details. I am not falling for another hoarding epidemic again. ...I think our *hoarding* habits might be negatively affecting pipe smokers in general, but I see no way to change the behavior on a large scale... I'm still pushing for a revamped pricing structure.
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Post by zambini on Feb 23, 2018 0:50:41 GMT -5
I guess my post didn't go through. My point was that when I said all the pipe smokers I know, all have cellars of over 100 pounds and up to 1000. These people are not buying as investments or to flip. I have no idea what reddit is or what goes on there. Is it a pipe site? Putting aside extreme utliers whose honestly considering smoking 1000 lbs plus, without adding more, during the rest of their lives? Leaving behind such a big cellar doesn't sound like an efficient use of resources.
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Post by trailboss on Feb 23, 2018 1:09:38 GMT -5
If you have a 1000 pound cellar, you are obviously in the speculation market or you are a compulsive buyer that is no longer operating on logic.
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Post by zambini on Feb 23, 2018 1:15:45 GMT -5
If you have a 1000 pound cellar, you are obviously in the speculation market or you are a compulsive buyer that is no longer operating on logic. Is there an estimate as to the largest 'respectable' cellar a single smoker is likely to have?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2018 2:26:15 GMT -5
If you have a 1000 pound cellar, you are obviously in the speculation market or you are a compulsive buyer that is no longer operating on logic. Is there an estimate as to the largest 'respectable' cellar a single smoker is likely to have? I may not be the most qualified to answer this, though I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once. I can't recall where I read it, but there are a few people with like record holding cellar amounts in excess of 1000 lbs. Respectable, IMO, would be your expected life remainder in years times ten pounds. In my case I am stopping at 100 pounds, roughly, and am already there. Like Jesse, I bought mine to smoke. In some cases where it would have served prosperity more to keep in a tin, I have jarred some, put some in bags for ready use. Most of the tobaccos I have large amounts of... we discussed this once. Briefly, I like bulk. In the case of Five Brothers, it's about as cheap by the pouch as most others are in bulk, so I pick up a bunch of packs of it at a time
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sablebrush52
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Post by sablebrush52 on Feb 23, 2018 2:44:29 GMT -5
If you have a 1000 pound cellar, you are obviously in the speculation market or you are a compulsive buyer that is no longer operating on logic. Is there an estimate as to the largest 'respectable' cellar a single smoker is likely to have? I'm not sure what you mean by "respectable". There are some very large cellars out in the wild, and they're not listed online. I've got something a little north of 100 lbs, which is a stupid amount, but which also should hold me for 15 to 20 years. And while I might not be around that long, given the longevity gene on both sides of my family, I might in for the long run. In any event, I'll have some nicely aged tobacco to smoke when I want it and I'll have choices. McClelland never figured large in my cellar, but I did buy a half dozen tins to sample, a bit of bulk for blending and fun, and a significant amount of the 40th Anniversary blend as that's one that I'm going to want to smoke regularly. With McClelland possibly going tits up it seemed time to get off the pot.
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Beardedpipesmoker
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Post by Beardedpipesmoker on Feb 23, 2018 10:24:26 GMT -5
That’s the word on the street anyway. Tough to believe they’d just walk away? It’s not the nasty government either; rather, it’s poor quality tobacco. Supposedly it will be officially announced shortly that McClelland is history. I’ve been a big fan for a lot of years. Glad my cellar overflowith with my favorites. Any idea when they will actually announce? I didn't even realize they were going out. Last I had heard they were just canceling some blends. Guess I'll need to stock up on some Cellar and On the Town
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Post by johnlawitzke on Feb 23, 2018 10:55:48 GMT -5
I understand that C&D is taking over the MC blends. Should be an interesting time. I suspect that pigs will be flying before that happens. Mike McNeil has said repeatedly that he would rather close down the business than sell it, or turn it over to someone else to run. He doesn't believe that anyone else is going to be able to uphold his standard and he doesn't want the name sullied. I doubt this too. A couple of years ago at the Chicago Show, I was standing outside the front door of the Mega Center having a quick smoke and chatting with Jeremy Reeves. Mike McNeil stepped outside, stood 5' away from me and Jeremy, had his smoke, and went back inside without saying one word to or even giving a head nod to Jeremy.
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Post by zambini on Feb 23, 2018 11:18:46 GMT -5
Is there an estimate as to the largest 'respectable' cellar a single smoker is likely to have? I'm not sure what you mean by "respectable". There are some very large cellars out in the wild, and they're not listed online. I've got something a little north of 100 lbs, which is a stupid amount, but which also should hold me for 15 to 20 years. And while I might not be around that long, given the longevity gene on both sides of my family, I might in for the long run. In any event, I'll have some nicely aged tobacco to smoke when I want it and I'll have choices. McClelland never figured large in my cellar, but I did buy a half dozen tins to sample, a bit of bulk for blending and fun, and a significant amount of the 40th Anniversary blend as that's one that I'm going to want to smoke regularly. With McClelland possibly going tits up it seemed time to get off the pot. With regards to defining 'respectable' that's kind of my point. To my mind, the general sentiment on the forum is slowly moving towards lightly pushing against hoarding and yet hoarding hasn't been defined. From the comments it seems that the general rule is that if you expect to smoke it in your lifetime then it doesn't matter the blend nor the quantity nor the precurence nor the speed of acquisition. With regards to McClelland blends, if they really end production, I missed out on 110 Just Plain Nuts which I was hoping to try using to mix with Kentucky Club. I do wonder what the end of Dunhill and (hypothetically) McClelland means for the market, the exit of these major players may push for the remaining companies to consolidate in order to further limit competition or it may push for a huge play for market share as customers readjust their tastes or it may lead to a one time bump in sales followed by a massive decline as everyone creates huge cellers that negate the need for future purchases or maybe some new player enters the scene and buys the rights to key blends? Maybe ya'll who are more in the know and go to the shows have an idea of what the major players are thinking?
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Post by zambini on Feb 23, 2018 11:27:28 GMT -5
Is there an estimate as to the largest 'respectable' cellar a single smoker is likely to have? I may not be the most qualified to answer this, though I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once. I can't recall where I read it, but there are a few people with like record holding cellar amounts in excess of 1000 lbs. Respectable, IMO, would be your expected life remainder in years times ten pounds. In my case I am stopping at 100 pounds, roughly, and am already there. Like Jesse, I bought mine to smoke. In some cases where it would have served prosperity more to keep in a tin, I have jarred some, put some in bags for ready use. Most of the tobaccos I have large amounts of... we discussed this once. Briefly, I like bulk. In the case of Five Brothers, it's about as cheap by the pouch as most others are in bulk, so I pick up a bunch of packs of it at a time Interesting formula. I've heard good things about the Holiday Inn Express; continental breakfast, HBO, the works! I have to admit that your constant pushing of Distinguished Gentleman is starting to work on me and if Match Ready Rubbed is a let down then it'll be on my list.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2018 11:51:59 GMT -5
That’s the word on the street anyway. Tough to believe they’d just walk away? It’s not the nasty government either; rather, it’s poor quality tobacco. Supposedly it will be officially announced shortly that McClelland is history. I’ve been a big fan for a lot of years. Glad my cellar overflowith with my favorites. Any idea when they will actually announce? I didn't even realize they were going out. Last I had heard they were just canceling some blends. Guess I'll need to stock up on some Cellar and On the Town No; however, etailers have recently been intermittently removing select McClelland products from their sites which I don't interpret as a positive development. I'm sure they know more than us.
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sablebrush52
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Post by sablebrush52 on Feb 23, 2018 12:47:02 GMT -5
I'm not sure what you mean by "respectable". There are some very large cellars out in the wild, and they're not listed online. I've got something a little north of 100 lbs, which is a stupid amount, but which also should hold me for 15 to 20 years. And while I might not be around that long, given the longevity gene on both sides of my family, I might in for the long run. In any event, I'll have some nicely aged tobacco to smoke when I want it and I'll have choices. McClelland never figured large in my cellar, but I did buy a half dozen tins to sample, a bit of bulk for blending and fun, and a significant amount of the 40th Anniversary blend as that's one that I'm going to want to smoke regularly. With McClelland possibly going tits up it seemed time to get off the pot. With regards to defining 'respectable' that's kind of my point. To my mind, the general sentiment on the forum is slowly moving towards lightly pushing against hoarding and yet hoarding hasn't been defined. From the comments it seems that the general rule is that if you expect to smoke it in your lifetime then it doesn't matter the blend nor the quantity nor the precurence nor the speed of acquisition. That sounds about right. I've built up most of my cellar over the past 5 years, very late to the game. I'd always kept a couple of pounds in stock, but putting aside a private library of blends was quite a step for me. And part of it was the knowledge that the marketplace would change and become more constricted. Buying with the intent to resell at a profit wasn't, and still isn't, part of the plan. Buying to provide me the opportunity to enjoy some aged blends and to simply have choices is what it's all about. It's surprising what has happened with some of the tins I bought in terms of market value. I'm still going to smoke them, a few of them with friends who will appreciate having the opportunity to enjoy some unobtainium. That's really where the value is for me.
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Post by johnbrandt on Feb 23, 2018 12:52:30 GMT -5
Very sad news with the Government cut backs to help the farms grow tobacco will start to see a shortage of good tobacco in the future.
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Post by cigrmaster on Feb 23, 2018 13:08:01 GMT -5
In the summer of 2012 I decided I needed to have a cellar if I wanted to smoke aged tobacco and have blends that I knew had the possibility of being discontinued. It took me less than a year to accomplish my goal and now it is rare for me not smoke nicely aged tobacco. Two of my favorite blends Rotary Navy Cut and Brigham Klondike Gold were recently discontinued. I had the foresight to cellar them deep and I didn't get caught like I did with the original Three Nuns.
I recently found a couple of new blends that I really like so I began to cellar them. One is a Mc made blend so 2 weeks ago I began accumulating it. I have what I want now and if MC does indeed close, I will be fine. In 5 years I am sure my MC blend will be worth more than I paid but I have no intention of selling.
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Post by zambini on Feb 23, 2018 13:14:17 GMT -5
Very sad news with the Government cut backs to help the farms grow tobacco will start to see a shortage of good tobacco in the future. That's partly my point with the pricing structure of pipe tobacco. How will (or should) consumers replace the value of government subsidies to tobacco farmers? Maybe consumers will pay more for blends using little produced strains of tobacco to encourage its production or maybe we'll see a reduction in the number of blends and strains of tobacco to allow economies of scale through the industry? I can't imagine the Zimbabwe model of land redistribution and waiting around for 30 years for new farmers to figure things out is going to work in most places.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2018 14:02:01 GMT -5
I understand that C&D is taking over the MC blends. Should be an interesting time. I suspect that pigs will be flying before that happens. Mike McNeil has said repeatedly that he would rather close down the business than sell it, or turn it over to someone else to run. He doesn't believe that anyone else is going to be able to uphold his standard and he doesn't want the name sullied. Even if it did happen, it would not be McClelland's anymore. I find their blending styles and types of leaf to be totally different. Their Orientals and VAs taste nothing alike, and those are the things that make McC unique. It would be McClelland as much as Dunhill is Dunhill.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2018 16:14:21 GMT -5
Totally dig this statement; however, I view tobacco for what it has been for centuries - a tradable commodity just like others. It's a win-win if one can enjoy while improving their own lot at the same time. I see no reason to apologize if one can turn a little profit on some tobacco and purchase a nice pipe or anything else as a result.
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Post by daveinlax on Feb 23, 2018 17:27:08 GMT -5
Yup, I've got plenty of tobacco to smoke and I only more if I can see a big upside. In just that last week at the Gateway Pipe Show in STL I bought bunch of rare and rumored disconnected mixtures at lower to a little over retail including a couple of dusty tins of Across the Pond from a local cigar shop. I really enjoy the hunt for pipes and tobacco. As for McClelland who knows what will happen. When the "closing the doors when their tobacco supply runs out" rumor was first going around the hobby in December I stocked up then. I talked to some of the KC club guys who would be the first to know last weekend and they all said there was nothing new to report but this was the first time I can remember Mike McNeil not attending the show.
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Post by Dramatwist on Feb 23, 2018 17:57:41 GMT -5
...been thinking a bit more about this. We're adaptable creatures, even though we remember the past fondly and sometimes attempt to preserve it.
I'll keep my cellar, enjoy it's contents and maybe add to it on occasion... but I might just shift my outlook to the future of tobacco and, for the most part, enjoy what's available at any given time.
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Post by zambini on Feb 23, 2018 18:23:26 GMT -5
... but I might just shift my outlook to the future of tobacco and, for the most part, enjoy what's available at any given time. Is this your way of letting us know you're getting a vape pen?
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Post by Dramatwist on Feb 23, 2018 18:25:43 GMT -5
... but I might just shift my outlook to the future of tobacco and, for the most part, enjoy what's available at any given time. Is this your way of letting us know you're getting a vape pen? HELL no..., lol...
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2018 19:03:46 GMT -5
...been thinking a bit more about this. We're adaptable creatures, even though we remember the past fondly and sometimes attempt to preserve it. I'll keep my cellar, enjoy it's contents and maybe add to it on occasion... but I might just shift my outlook to the future of tobacco and, for the most part, enjoy what's available at any given time. Good point. As much as I seek out certain special blends, it's rare that I actually think, "Damn, I wish I was smoking X blend instead!" Unless it's something new I'm trying and don't like, of course.
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Post by trailboss on Feb 23, 2018 19:19:08 GMT -5
I am glad that I got back into the hobby when I did, and set a monthly budget allowance to build a cellar. From the first time I heard broken record Brian Levine say “buy now, it will never be cheaper and more available”, it struck a chord with me, and proceeded accordingly. I was glad to nail down what genres I like early in the game so that I am not on the path of a regretful cellar from changing tastes.
I have no way to figure how much I have, I would have to do an inventory... never weighed the many cases of jarred bulks...maybe if the wife leaves town for a few days....
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Post by zambini on Feb 23, 2018 19:50:36 GMT -5
Can anyone recommend an alternative for 110 Just Plain Nuts? I'd use it as a light aromatic blending burley.
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sablebrush52
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Post by sablebrush52 on Feb 23, 2018 20:00:31 GMT -5
I got several calls about McClelland possibly closing, asking me not to say anything, etc, etc. And what would I say? A rumor is only that. But, to satisfy my curiosity I did pick up a few tins of McClelland blends that I had been thinking of trying, figuring that it couldn't hurt.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2018 20:02:27 GMT -5
Can anyone recommend an alternative for 110 Just Plain Nuts? I'd use it as a light aromatic blending burley. Sutliff J4 Burley is a VG blender. It was formerly called J4 Mild Burley. I think they dropped Mild to increase sales, but nonetheless, it is mild. I've used it several times with good results.
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