So McClelland is Gone...Who Do See As The Next Major Player?

...lol, lets me off the bus...

...STG wasn't the first to pop into my head reading the question, but I think you're right...

Well, we need to hear more!

I'm with you on that one! I tried Daughters and Ryan Three Sails based upon so many good reviews, and I would have been better off with a package of Cigarette Tobacco!

McCrannie's Red Ribbons are now out of stock...

If I were a tobacco consultant I'd push companies to expand to chew, water pipe, and vape as they require less tobacco than other forms, have a high capacity for growth, and are not over regulated worldwide.

If I were consulting for a pipe tobacco company I'd push for market consolidation. As the US is the biggest market for pipe tobacco, the deeming regulations are going to eventually place a premium on existing blends over the development of new blends. Similarly, the limited avenues for marketing mean that it's probably easier to grow existing brands than develop new ones.

Whilst STG is NOT a tobacco giant, it is a pipe tobacco giant meaning that it has the most riding on the industry. They also have much larger worldwide distribution than its competitors and cash on hand. As the industry is so small, I can't imagine that it will ever face an anti-monopoly case unless things seriously change.

In that sense STG-Lane are probably in the best position to grow with the demise of McClellend and the B&Ms. K&K could try to grow their presence in the US by linking up with someone like Smokingpipes (distribution) and buying existing blends like the Frogs or Wilkes etc. C&D have so many blends on offer (great way to prevent lags in production if a key blend component is missing but difficult for customers to keep your product line straight) and are relatively small to imagine that they could capitalize too much on existing conditions (they'd need lots of cash). Maybe some investor teams up with the large traditional B&Ms like Iwan Reis to expand production and ditribution but it sounds like a long-shot.

Among existing distributors, unless things market conditions suddenly change in the US, Smokingpipes & 4noggins are the only ones with a national presence and customer loyalty. Both have tried developing blend lines of their own (4noggins' bulks and Smokingpipes' Low Country) but will face challenges costs from enforcement of the deeming laws and cross-state sales tax retention in the coming years.

The big guys (JTI, BAT, etc.) are indicating that their future is in vaping and that pipe tobacco is small potatoes so I can't imagine that they'd re-enter the market. Outside of the US, Europe, and parts of SE Asia most pipers smoke local blends that are different enough to think that there is too much cross-over potential e.g. Japanese kiseru and the Middle East's dohka. I can't imagine one of those manufacturers growing enough to enter our pipe tobacco market in the next few years (although I've heard that some regional types of snuff have entered the EU and US market).

The only one that could possibly try and replicate the STG strategy highlighted above would be MacBaren's through their Sutliff arm but they'd have to be willing to move away from focusing on bulks to tins.

Any way, my two-cents.

I'd bet that C&D is buying McClellend's equipment in the hopes of mastering McClellend's virginia but, without knowing their financial details, I'd figure they run the risk of over extension (they seem like a company near the size of McClellend already).

I agree that MacBaren could make a strong play.

My guess is that you won't see a lot changing. At least not for 3 years. I am guessing C&D has a 3 year plan (as far as new blends) and will see where the FDA is at that point. I think someone will pick up Dunhill and keep production going there. I think the pipe tobacco market will be to unstable for any new money to come into play. In three years we will know but seriously this could be our peak of pipe tobacco offerings and production. Just my guestimate.

If McClellend's is being sold by parts (C&D bought the machinery but the owner won't sell company whole including the blend names and images) it's going to be an expensive proposition for who ever wants to reintroduce McClellend blends. Do you think that if new money enters the market it'll likely be a piper who is willing to put-up a couple million?

We will surely go wherever else we've been going all along for variety, sans McClelland. Those more prominent brand names that remain standing will build a somewhat greater fan base... e.g., Samuel Gawith, C&D, G.L. Pease, Gawith Hogarth, as well as some overseas gourmet master blenders the likes of HU Tobacco and Motzek. McClelland is/was very special, but the void will quickly fill with a hefty dollup of nostalgic forgetfullness forging us forward into many new rotation favorites. Lots of great stuff out there for the easy picking.

A well diversified company with irons in tobacco, wholesale and retail will be the one standing in the end. Clueless to who that may be but in the grand scheme of things out of all of our control!

I would imagine that not a whole lot will happen at all. From a business perspective, it wouldn't make much sense for any company to make an investment in matches, duplicates, etc until the FDA business is sorted out. I suspect most companies will just take the perspective of "alright, one less competitor." They may put a little publicly out about various blends being similar to ... It's the cost effective thing to do.

Laudisi owns smoking pipes and c&d

...I watch those numbers closely as well, CM, and I think you're on to something...